Don't Underestimate The Next Pandemic

I have been talking about the need to plan for the next worldwide pandemic since this time in 2005.

Since our founding in 1989 the Institute for Crisis Management has been warning leaders of all kinds and sizes of businesses and other organizations about the need to plan for crises and prevent as many as possible.

We have had a measure of success in helping businesses around the globe plan and train for the inevitable bumps in the road they are most likely to encounter.  But it continues to frustrate me when we talk about pandemic planning and so many intelligent executives, owners and leaders ignore the threat.

It doesn't matter what you do or how big or small your organization is, a pandemic could have a devastating impact on it.

China has been dealing with a new strain of "bird flu" identified as H7N9. In the past two months 131 people have been infected and 36 have died. It has not reached pandemic status yet, and it may never.  But, if this strain of bird flu is not the beginning of the next worldwide pandemic, there will likely be another strain develop that will.

For hundreds of years and about every 20 to 30 years, the world has experienced a major pandemic, which killed thousands of people. The worst in modern times struck in 1918 and killed 500,000 people in the United States and 50-million worldwide.

Healthcare has advanced significantly since then, but it hasn't figured out how to fully prevent another pandemic. 

If you are not concerned about the human suffering, sickness and death that has accompanied pandemics throughout history, how about the economic impact on the people and governments?

Let's take one segment of the world's economy -- our food supply. 

Beginning nearly ten years ago, supermarkets and a few restaurant chains realized they could take a big hit on their bottom line if the public was afraid to buy and eat some of their biggest and best sellers, such as chicken.  And a few of those companies began to plan for the potential impact of that possibility.

We now have a clear view of the potential impact.  In China, in the past two months, with only a relative handful of deaths and illness from a new "bird flu" virus, the Agriculture Ministry reported this week it has cost the country's poultry industry $6.5-billion because consumers are afraid to buy and eat chicken, turkey and duck.

You don't have to be in the food industry to be concerned.  What if you make cars and trucks?

The normal functions of society were disrupted in the 1918 outbreak with workers too ill to work, others staying home out of fear, hospitals strained to meet the demand for care and basic essentials such as transportation, water, sanitation and power were threatened.

Forward thinking companies should already have a plan.

Planning should proceed on two fronts:

1.      How are you going to maintain a minimal level of service/productivity?
2.      How are you going to communicate quickly and effectively with employees, vendors and   customers?

Human Resources, Purchasing, Transportation, Marketing and Sales all need a plan to keep the business functioning. 

What’s the minimum workforce with which you can continue to operate?  When you have 20-30 percent of your workforce out sick, or afraid to come to work, what can you do to meet production or service demands?  When a number of those sick employees never return to work, where will you find qualified replacements?  How long will it take to train them?

When your vendors are facing the same sickness and absenteeism, and your delivery services are slowed by sickness, how will you maintain operations?
 
You need to anticipate:
    ·         What will you do
    ·         What will you say
    ·         How will you decide if you have to close a plant, store, distribution center or office, even   temporarily.

The communication challenge is just as significant.
You need a plan in place to communicate with employees, to reassure them, if you can:
    ·         their jobs will be safe
    ·         this will end and life will return to normal (whatever that is)
    ·         the company will stand by them and their families if the worst happens

That's just a starting place!

 

                                       

 

 

It Was Reported BUT It Really Didn't Happen!

It's been a rough week-plus for the news rooms of the United States, but a wake-up call and lesson for every organization that has social media sites, such as Twitter, Facebook, Vine and web based blogs.

In the early hours after the Boston Marathon bombing, one social media news site posted a false report that a missing student was connected to the bombing.  And, CNN and the Associated Press, along with a handful of other major news organizations reported -- as fact -- a suspect had been arrested for the bombing. 

The report was flat false.

Then, only days later, the Associated Press Twitter account was hacked and someone posted a tweet reporting two explosions had hit the White House  (NOT TRUE) and the President was injured (NOT TRUE).

The @APTwitter account has close to two-million followers, and within minutes after the false report the feed was suspended, but not before several thousand re-Tweets.

Big bad news contributes to at least two things...the AP's reputation and trust factor was brought into question, and the purported news of the attack sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average into a 140 point dive.  Fortunately, as soon as the mistake was reported and confirmed, the Dow shot back up.

Social media accounts linked to CBS 60 Minutes and 48 Hours were hacked Saturday and earlier the same group taking credit for the latest hack struck the Twitter feeds of National Public Radio and the British Broadcasting Company.  The Syrian Electronic Army claims all five attacks.

The experts say we are all too casual about password protection in our digital world, and until we strengthen password access to all of our on-line systems, we can expect these kinds of attacks more frequently.

Do You Have A Pandemic Plan?

            Remember how many millions of dollars and countless hours of worry and preparation were spent in anticipation of the Y2K (Computer) Bug back in 1999?

            Remember, nothing much went wrong?  Did you ever go back and review what you did, what it cost and what it might have cost if you had not prepared?
            There is a far greater threat facing the world than Y2K.  And like Y2K, there is not a lot executives, managers and leaders of corporations, small business and other organizations can do to prevent the possible disaster.
            But there is a great deal you can do to prepare, just in case, and without spending the kind of money that was spent on Y2K.
            We are urging organizations around the world to start drafting plans for the potential disruption of a deadly flu pandemic.  The World Health Organization says the world is “overdue” for an influenza pandemic, since mass epidemics have occurred every 20 to 30 years and it’s been nearly 40 years since the last one.
            The worst outbreak of influenza was in 1918 and it claimed 50-million lives around the globe and 500-thousand in the US, alone.  The most recent pandemic struck the US and the rest of world in 1968.
            The US Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, says the current situation is “worrisome” but not imminent, even though the Chinese government has confirmed a new H7N9 strain in recent days has killed 9 people and triggered the culling of poultry in the part of the country where the human cases have been confirmed.       
            The normal functions of society were disrupted in the 1918 outbreak with workers too ill to work, others staying home out of fear, hospitals strained to meet the demand for care and basic essentials such as transportation, water, sanitation and power were threatened.
            Forward thinking companies should already have a plan for the possibility.
            Planning should proceed on two fronts:
            1.      How are you going to maintain a minimal level of service/productivity?
            2.      How are you going to communicate quickly and effectively with key audiences?
           Human Resources, Purchasing, Transportation, Marketing and Sales all need a plan to keep the business functioning.  Plan for how you are going to keep operating with more than the normal number of people out sick and knowing that some will never be back.
            What’s the minimum workforce with which you can continue to operate?  When you have as much as half your workforce out sick, or afraid to come to work, what can you do to meet production or service demands?  When a number of those sick employees never return to work, where will you find qualified replacements?  How long will it take to train them?
            When your vendors are facing the same sickness and absenteeism, and your delivery services are slowed by sickness, how will you maintain operations?
            You need to anticipate:
            ·         What will you do
            ·         What will you say
            ·         How will you decide if you have to close a plant, store, distribution center or office.
            The communication challenge is just as significant.
            You need a plan in place to communicate with employees, to reassure them, if you can:
            ·         Their jobs will be safe
            ·         This will end and life will return to normal (whatever that is)
            ·         The company will stand by them and their families if the worst happens
           You will need to regularly update employees, vendors, partners, franchisees, customers and shareholders/investors about the progress you are making in overcoming the challenges of the pandemic.
           Be prepared to continuously reassure employees and customers that you will be able to meet their needs and expectations.  But, be honest.  You may be slowed by the illness or work may be temporarily halted.
           Part of the planning process will include determining the most effective and efficient method of communicating with those key audiences and anticipating which forms of communication will be more likely to work with so many people sick and dying.
           For those companies that do business in Southeast Asia, China and Mexico, planning is even more important because conditions in many of those countries and health care shortcomings will exacerbate the impact of a flu pandemic.